1. Coraline - I know it's odd for me, a die-hard Pixar fan, to expect and half want a Burton-esque (and I do dislike Burton's style, though Sellick isn't Burton, and I think that does show in Coraline) film whose creators have openly disparaged Pixar's efforts (the behind-the-scenes book consistently had the animators deriding Rataouille for having "cute" rats, and the interviews with the team on YouTube have them subtly or not-so-subtly saying that CGI, even Pixar's CGI, is either inhumanly perfect, not a "real" animated performance, or not "timeless" enough compared to the "hand-crafted" look of stop-motion) to win. But the phenomenal likeability and animation of Coraline herself, a heartbreakingly brave and spunky heroine, I think deserves a fair shot against the somewhat unsatisfying structuring and characters of Up (more on that later). Which is not to say that Coraline doesn't have problems - I think the script is often quite weak, only saved by incredibly strong voicing and animation, and they both alter the ending annoyingly by having a boy come save Coraline (though it's a bit more subtle than that, it's still annoying that he's there at all), and cut out the most powerful scene in the book (Coraline's flashback about her dad and the bees). But I'm glad I bought it, and think it does have a strong chance.
2. Up. Of course - Pixar has dominated the category with only a few upsets (and those, like Cars, weren't hard to understand why - though I do like Cars, I don't think it's what the Academy was looking for - I am curious about why Ratatouille, for all its brilliance, beat Persepolis). But I was frustrated with both the structure of the story - the ending really didn't feel as if it really followed from what went before, and the best part of the story was the first five-ten minute synopsis of a marriage - heartbreaking and warming simultaneously - and nowhere else does the film aspire or achieve that kind of deep emotion - especially not with the rather annoying kid and his predictably broken-home backstory. I admit this is a bit harsh, but I was expecting a bit more from my favorite animation company - I mean, they've made my absolute favorite superhero film (beating even Spider-man 2 and Batman Begins) and made me cry about car racing and robot romance (both of which are concepts I find really annoying, especially with Wall-e's bad science - but it worked anyway because of the sheer power of the storytelling and structure - which is where I really think Up falls down - not failing absolutely, but not nearly as strong as any of Pixar's other stories).
3. Ponyo - I'm not either Miyazaki or anime's biggest fan, and I haven't seen this one (only seen Spirited Away and Howl's Moving Castle - which were very sweet, gorgeous, yet off-puttingly odd and bizzare and unfollowable at the end), but Miyazaki transcends anime's low-budget bad animation, and has won in the past, so even though this one's getting "It's not as good as previous Miyazaki films" reviews, I would say that it has a chance against "It's not as good as previous Pixar films" Up and Coraline's beautiful yet flawed chances. And I would like to see it at some point. I'm just not expecting a whole huge lot.
4. Fantastic Mr. Fox - I have to say this film interests me not at all - I've not seen Wes Anderson's films, nor do I want to. I have read the book - and like Where the Wild Things Are, I just can't understand why people are making films of these books.
These are the only ones I think are almost certain to be on the five-film slate. The next few are ones I expect to be hotly contesting for the last spot.
5. 9 - though reviews have been very, very bad for this one, the sheer beauty of the ideas and animation (at least, according to reviews) may boost it up - as might Tim Burton's name attached to the producing credits. However, I a) don't like Burton, b) don't like post-apocalyptic; c) don't like crummy stories and bad dialogue, which is what the reviews are crediting it with, so I have little desire to see this one.
6. A Christmas Carol - Unfortunately, despite my newfound love of Dickens (yay Little Dorrit!), this film has waaay too many strikes against it for me to want to see it anytime soon: 1) I hate Robert Zemekis; 2) I hate Jim Carrey (Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind notwithstanding, this does not look like it's going to be another one of those); 3) I don't like motion-capture animation; 4) Beowulf didn't get any real animation nods. So, I neither want to see it (I'd rather reread the excellent book - see there's a book that does deserve a good adaptation - just don't think this is it - or listen to the radio dramatization) nor expect it seriously to win - but it might get on the shortlist.
7. The Princess and the Frog. Honestly, I don't much think it looks any good - I'm much, much more excited about Rapunzel - but it might have a good shot at the shortlist since Disney's making a big deal about returning to 2D animation (which it should - I just don't think this is really looking that interesting from the trailers). I doubt I'll see it before DVD, though - and I won't be rushing even then, unless someone I trust gives it a huge rec. Like I said, Rapunzel looks much more interesting.
The rest of the films really, really don't look to me like Oscar material - but you never know - I wouldn't have picked Shrek for it either, and it did win. But I hope none of these make it - as much as I would like to see some of them.
8. Astro Boy - it looks cheap, silly, and dumb. But the design might garner a bit of attention. I haven't really heard any buzz about it - but the trailer just looked, well, you know.
9. Monsters vs. Aliens - I actually do want to see this, but mostly because of the clever parody of the Alien vs. Predator in the trailer - I hate horror, and seeing it sent up like that made me happy. But it's so deliriously silly I just can't imagine anyone taking it that seriously as a contender - but then, Kung Fu Panda (for behind-the-scenes reasons) beat Wall-e in the Annies, so it might have some kind of thing going for it. But I don't think anyone seriously will vote for it at the Oscars. Again, I do still want to see it, despite thinking it will be very, very silly.
10. Ice Age 3: Dawn of the Dinosaurs - I admit to not being able to finish Ice Age 1, on account of the absolutely repuslive main character. And the trailers looks absolutely idiotic. And yet it's the most profitable animated movie of the year worldwide. What the heck, world? I have faith that even the Academy won't vote for it, though.
11. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs - I dislike the book - it really creeped me out as a kid - but the cheery, sunny character design makes me want to give it a try. Despite that, or maybe because of that, I seriously doubt a mad-scientist kiddie book adaptation with cutesy design will make the shortlist - I don't think Meet the Robinsons or The Tale of Despareaux did either, and this film looks sort of like a mash-up of those two. I think I'll like it better than either of those two, at least, I hope I do.
12. Tinker Bell and the Lost Treasure - I am a giant Peter Pan fan (the play, book, and 2003 film, not the Disney version, just to clarify), and so I feel morally obligated to watch these films. And I do like them, for sweet, pretty, nicely animated direct-to-DVD poorly written and structured films. But despite the fact that I plan on enjoying this one, I seriously doubt it's anywhere close to being on the Oscar voters' radar.
13-19. I admit to not knowing or caring anything whatsoever about these films, and don't seriously expect them to be on the shortlist:
Battle for Terra
The Dolphin – Story of a Dreamer
Mary and Max
The Missing Lynx
Planet 51
The Secret of Kells
A Town Called Panic
20. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel. Do you really have to ask why this is at the bottom of my list? I watched the first one (and by the way, how in the world is this getting an "Animated feature" nomination? It's well over 1/4th live-action, isn't it?), and wanted to claw my eyes and ears out - I simply do not understand why idiotic adult + stupid immature rude annoying chipmunks = good movie. If this makes it anywhere near the shortlist, I will know that the Oscars have lost even the semblance of relevance.
So, way more than anyone ever wanted to know about my animation-nerd-ness. But I'll be keeping my eye on these - as they're pretty much the only films I really care about winning any awards this year. I mean, the other films I've seen this year (Teminator Salvation, Star Trek, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, New Moon, and The Young Victoria) are unlikely to win anything other than best costumes, maybe a few acting nods, best score, or best special effects. Though I do like the score race - since I love filmscores.
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